Ketchikan has job potential.

Alaska had 21 years of job gains up until 2009. After a year without, Alaska added 1,800 jobs in 2010 and 5,200 in 2011, according to the Alaska Department of Labor.

State economists predict 3,900 new jobs in 2012.

Oil prices, from which the state receives 90 percent of its revenue, a recovering tourism industry and federal dollars are benefiting Alaska overall. But the only industry that experienced any significant job growth in 2011 was health care — perhaps a clue to what Ketchikan Medical Center and the medical community mean economically to Ketchikan and southern Southeast for the future. Construction and financial activities recorded losses, while professional and business services and federal government sustained their job numbers.

The federal government generates about one third of all jobs in Alaska, oil and gas creates about one third and various industries — for example, fishing, tourism, mining, air cargo — generate the final third.

The concern for Alaskans is declining oil production and the inevitable changes Washington, D.C., will have to implement to rein in government debt and deficits. Alaska received just less than $10 billion from the feds in 2008, but largely due to stimulus spending, the state received about $12 billion in 2009. Much of that revenue is related to jobs.

Mining jobs increased during the recession in Alaska. Growth is expected in 2012 and beyond, another exciting indicator for Ketchikan, where nearby two mining sites — one for rare earth elements and another for copper, gold, silver and zinc — are being explored. Meanwhile, tourism suffered at the peak of the recession, but revived in 2011 and is anticipated to see increases in 2012.

The health care industry created 2,300 jobs from 2008 to 2010, the same number as state government. Health care has enjoyed a 20-year growth spurt in Alaska. That is expected to continue in 2012.

Specifically to Southeast, employment grew by 350 in 2011, DOL statistics show. It is expected to gain another 150 jobs in 2012, which will be just over the 2008 total jobs in Alaska.

Growth occurred in health care, social assistance, professional and business services, and mining in 2010 and 2011. Government gained 200 jobs in 2010, but didn't increase jobs in 2011. Most of 2010's job growth occurred in Juneau, while Juneau, Ketchikan and Sitka gained jobs in 2011. The annual growth before 1997, when the timber industry sustained huge declines, amounted to 700 jobs annually; the region averages about 100 each year now.

While local government gained jobs overall in Southeast in 2010, DOL forecasts a loss of 50 jobs in 2012. But no loss is anticipated in health care; that industry is expected to continue its growth streak. Health care jobs increased by 200 in each of the past two years. The increase is expected to be about 50 this year.

In the tourism industry, where Southeast leisure and hospitality's employment was flat in 2011, despite growth in other parts of the state, increases are expected in 2012. The number of airline passengers has increased since 2009 and ferry ridership (automobiles and passengers) increased in 2010. An additional 50,000 cruise ship passengers are expected in 2012, according to DOL. About 50 new jobs in leisure and hospitality are expected this year. Ketchikan is one of the Southeast communities that will experience the effects of tourism-related increases.

Mining, which has surged primarily in Juneau, also is affecting Ketchikan's economy. The industry saw job growth in 2010 and 2011, and that growth is likely to increase, albeit at a slower rate, in 2012. As the mineral exploration and development progresses near Ketchikan those figures will reflect that expansion. The industry is expected to increase by about 50 jobs this year.

DOL's preliminary stats show that seafood processing jobs averaged about 100 new jobs between 2010 and 2011. This was attributed to seafood prices and demand for kelp worldwide.

Judging from DOL economists' information, Ketchikan is well positioned for the future. It is focused on updating the core of its medical industry by expanding and remodeling the Ketchikan hospital; it is encouraging exploration and development of nearby mine sites, and it is a premiere port of call for cruise ships, which are anticipated to bring increasing numbers of passengers.

Add to that the expansion of Ketchikan Shipyard, impending development at Ward Cove by new owners, the opening of OceansAlaska's mariculture center, and a variety of large construction projects — downtown fire hall, the swimming pool, the library and the shipyard boat-building facility — and the community is working toward better times.

Even these days of tighter budgets and doing more with less are likely to help in preparing for the times ahead. They require efficiencies. They force the community to evaluate what it needs and what it wants. There is the opportunity to get in shape for the race to the future.

It's a race Ketchikan, with all of its potential, will win.